DC Lite #197

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1. ADP employment change. Employment cooled for the 5th consecutive month as businesses added 99k workers to payrolls in August, the fewest since January 2021 and well below estimates of 145k.

2. CEO employment outlook. "As the Fed starts cutting and the election enters the rearview, increased certainty should improve the hiring environment (or prevent further deterioration)."

3. Cuts pricing (I). "This chart ... shows the amount of easing, in basis points, that was priced in by the market at the beginning of each easing since 1990. This one sticks out like a sore thumb."

4. SPX vs. yield curve. "Following 15 historical Yield Curve un-inversions (since ‘62), the median $SPX return is: +1M: +2%, +6M: -2%, +12M: +9%. In reality, it’s all about Soft vs Hard Landing from here."

See:

5. SPX top 10. The top 10 SPX stocks trade at 28.3x forward P/E and represent 35.5%/28.1% of SPX market cap/earnings.