DC Lite #198

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1. NFP (III). "The trend in private sector job growth has clearly downshifted and looks rather weak through August."

2. Avg. hourly earnings. "Wage pressures picked up a tad in August: +0.4% m/m. For a signal, take the average of +0.3% m/m in last 3 and 6 months. Indicates wage growth ~3.5% which is **below** that consistent w/ 2% inflation, especially when productivity growth is ~2.7% y/y."

3. Speculators vs. USTs. "Leveraged funds have been getting more net short than asset managers have been getting net long, indicating a building net short in USTs ... the net short on this measure is the largest since 2008."

4. New lows. The number of SPX stocks making new lows has been creeping up across timeframes.

5. Q3 earnings revisions. The 2.8% "decline in the Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate during this period was between the low end and the high end of the four most recent averages (-2.3% to -3.0%). At the sector level, ten of the eleven sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2024."