DC Lite #199

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1. Response rates. "The incoming data is more unreliable and creates extra uncertainty for investors and policymakers."

2. Consumer sentiment. "US consumers turned more positive on their outlook for the US economy (+6 points from our July survey) and their household financial situation (+7 points from our July survey) in August, after the near-record uptick in July."

3. Modified Sahm Rule. "A different version of the Sahm Rule focusing on the 25-54 age group ... has recently diverged sharply from the overall unemployment rate version and suggests little risk of recession."

4. Manufacturing recovery. "Easing rate pressure and the end of de-stocking suggest a potential manufacturing recovery, boosting earnings growth in 2025E."

5. Institutional Investor Risk Appetite. After some initial volatility, the index flipped positive in August with investors moving from risk aversion back to moderate risk seeking.