DC Lite #202

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1. Container freight costs. "Biggest ever one-week drop in cost of shipping a container from Shanghai to New York. Since hitting a July peak below $6000 pr 40ft box, the Drewy global container shipping index has seen a sharp reversal."

2. Market leadership (I). "The main risk from my perspective continues to be the 'math' of what happens to the overall index when its largest components are passing the baton to the smallest ones … we may well be in a market cycle in which most stocks go up while the index doesn’t."

3. Semis vs. Software. After underperforming Semis by nearly 5 standard deviations over the 100 days through early June, Software’s relative performance is mean reverting.

4. AI vs. margins. "AI may drive margin expansion for 23 of 25 industry groups."

5. AI price vs. earnings. "Forward EPS estimates for AI stocks have continued to rise while price has pulled back. Relative to earnings trends, this is the cheapest AI stocks have been in awhile."

See: Marlin Capital