DC Lite #206

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1. SEP. "The median monetary policymaker thinks the unemployment rate (currently 4.2%) will be at 4.4% at the end of this year and the next ... Twelve monetary policymakers think the risk is that the unemployment rate goes up even more than they expect."

2. Gold vs. first cut. "After a cut, there has only been one time, 1998, when gold has trended significantly lower after a rate cut throughout the next year, and even then, close to the one-year mark, it surged as the Dot Com crash started."

3. Sector short interest. From the end of May to the end of August, "consumer staples was the only one of the 11 stock sectors to see a decline in short interest."

4. FMS vs. Utilities. “Allocation to utilities jumped 17ppt MoM to net 8% overweight. This is the highest allocation to utilities since Dec’08. Current reading is 2.8 stdev above its long-term average.”

5. SPX vs. cross-asset risk appetite. "The S&P 500 is tickling record highs, but cross-asset risk appetite remains exceptionally low ... Other times risk appetite was abnormally low, stocks struggled except for defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities."