DC Lite #208

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.

1. Hard vs. soft landing. "The market is now considering a recession as its base case ... However, that's too pessimistic a view based on the data, which show a low chance of recession over the next three to four months."

2. Leveraged funds vs. USD futures. Leveraged fund net positioning in USD index futures went from 7-year highs to near neutral.

3. SPX gamma (I). "With seven sessions left in Q3, risks loom as Friday’s options expiration and the S&P 500 gamma turns negative. A $6.1B drop in long gamma suggests Wall Street dealers won't buy this dip to maintain neutral positioning."

4. SPX vs. election year. The S&P 500 is on track for one of the best election years on record but history suggests weakness between now and the election.

See:

5. FFR vs. EPS. "We believe the key difference between this easing cycle and past cycles is the profits trajectory. Historically, profits have almost always been decelerating as the Fed first cuts rates, but that’s not the case today."