DC Lite #220

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1. Seasonal jobs. "Searches for seasonal jobs as a share of total job seeker activity are the highest in recent history — 18%  higher than the same time last year — meaning more competition for holiday postings."

2. FOMC minutes. "Despite the 50bp cut, Bloomberg Intelligence data scores the Sept Fed meeting minutes as the most hawkish since April."

3. Bond volatility. "The MOVE Index measures the Implied Volatility of a constant one-month bond option.  On Monday the election fell into this 30-day window. This jumped the MOVE from 100 to 124  The market is bracing for an 18bp rate change on the day(s) after the election ... As has been the case since mid-2022, financial risk is all concentrated in bonds, not stocks."

4. DJIA momentum. "Over the past 250 trading days, the Dow Industrials have advanced 152 times or just under 61% of the time. The only times it enjoyed this much consistency were in April 2010 and May 2018, both of which preceded around six months of chop."

5. SPX vs. earnings season. The S&P 500 typically rises by an average of 2% during the first 4 weeks of reporting.

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