DC Lite #221

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1. Jobless claims. Initial claims jumped 33k (biggest since July 2021) to 258k (vs. 230k est), a 14-month high. The spike was not limited to states affected by Hurricane Helene (i.e., North Carolina and Florida);  California, Michigan, and Ohio also saw large increases. Continuing claims rose sharply as well.

2. CPI. "Driving this upside surprise was the hottest supercore print since April--transportation services (i.e. mostly car insurance) and medical care services in particular heated up."

3. Retail investor sentiment. Bullish AAII responses increased while bearish sentiment plunged to its lowest since December, pushing the bull-bear spread to a 12-week high.

4. HF net exposure vs. election. "Hedge funds aren’t reducing their stock positions the way they historically do ahead of elections, and instead have elevated exposure to equities as the S&P 500 Index continues to set records."

5. VIX vs. SPX ATHs. "Excluding 2020-2021 pandemic+stimulus induced rally, new highs in SPX have never been met with this level of anxiety. In fact the avg level of VIX when SPX makes all time highs is about 50% below current (~13.4)."