DC Lite #224

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.

Administrative note: As some of you may know, Mrs. Chartbook and I are expecting the arrival of Baby Chartbook on Monday, October 21. With this being our first, I will be taking a few days off at the start of next week to tend to mom and baby and acclimate to my new role as a father. That said, I intend to return and resume publishing as soon as possible. Thank you for your understanding and continued support during this exciting time!

1. Global growth expectations. "Global growth expectations rose from -47% to -10%...the 5th largest jump since 1994 ... on the back of 50bps Fed cut, +250k payroll print, and China stimulus."

2. Debt delinquency expectations. The anticipated probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next 3 months rose for the 4th consecutive month in September to the highest (14.2%) since April 2020.

3. FMS vs. equities. "In October, FMS investors raised their equity allocation by the largest amount since Jun’20 ... Allocation to staples fell at the fastest pace since '05, while allocation to consumer discretionary saw the biggest monthly increase on record since '05.”

4. Insiders. "You know who's not chasing stocks here? Insiders. Corporate executives among S&P 500 firms have some of the least open market purchases in 13 years."

5. Price vs. valuation. "Since May, 2021, stocks have gotten 19% cheaper … Yet over the same timeframe, stocks have rallied +38%."