DC Lite #229

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1. US growth projections. Bloomberg economists have raised their projections for US economic growth and reduced year-ahead recession odds to 25% (the lowest reading since March 2022).

2. USD vs. stocks. The Dollar Index has traded higher in 18 of the last 20 trading days. Its impact on stocks has been mixed (all else equal, a stronger $ would be positive for sectors with high domestic exposure and negative for those with high international exposure).

3. HFs vs. US equities. "Hedge funds remain significantly U/W US equities vs the market benchmark."

4. SPX vs. election outcomes. "Since 1900, sweeps have been mostly bullish, regardless of party, while divided governments have been more mixed (especially for the Republicans)."

5. Q3 profit margins. The blended net profit margin for the SPX in Q3 is 12%, which is below Q2 (12.2%) and Q3 2023 (12.2%), but above the 5-year average of 11.5%.