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1. Oil volatility. "Oil prices have become increasingly volatile, with concerns of an oversupply next year and lackluster demand in top importer China weighing against unrest in the Middle East."
2. Gold rallies. "If we look back before 2024 to where the current rally began, while impressive, it ranks quite poorly compared to historical bull runs – having been both lower in magnitude and duration than all except the rally of 1983."
3. ETF flows. "ETF investors shunning all hedges (VIX, inverse eq, gold, cash) while pouring cash into stocks heading into Election Day. IMO investors have been conditioned to tune out scary headlines and keep buying."
4. CTAs vs. US equities. "We have this cohort as small sellers of SPX in every scenario over the next week."
5. Election price momentum. "The direction of 2-wk return following the day after an election was the same as the direction of the day after the election 100% of the time during the prior seven elections (since 1996) and 79% of the time since 1928."
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