DC Lite #240

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1. FFR vs. FFR futures. "Fed expectations are wrong. The economy is strong, and there are upside risks to inflation. Markets are pricing in too many Fed cuts."

2. Yields vs. crude. "Yields have decoupled from their relationship with crude; and, relative to past soft landing easing cycles, 10y yields have now significantly overshot, leaving them vulnerable to consolidation."

3. Bitcoin funding rate. "Bitcoin’s funding rate, or the premium paid for new long positions in perpetual futures, has inched up since Trump’s victory, but is still well below its 2024 peak."

4. Panic Index. "Our Volatility Panic Index went from >9 to sub-4 in the last week. Reminder, this looks at 2y percentile ranks across SPX implied vol, SPX 25d put/call skew, VIX implied vol, and SPX term structure shape."

5. Return contribution. Over half of the S&P 500's trailing 12-month return can be attributed to multiple expansion.

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