DC Lite #242

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1. Alternate inflation. "Using more real time metrics for shelter, headline inflation drops from 2.6% to 1.3%. Core inflation drops from 3.3% to 1.76%. Official BLS shelter 4.9% vs our Estimate of 1.3%."

2. Fed cut probabilities. Odds of a 25bps cut at next month's meeting jumped from 59% to 82% following the CPI print.

3. IBIT AUM. "$IBIT has hit the $40b asset mark (a mere two wks after hitting $30b) in a record 211 days, annihilating prev record of 1,253 days held by $IEMG. It's now in Top 1% of all ETFs by assets and at 10mo old it is bigger than all 2,800 ETFs launched in the past TEN years."

4. SPX valuations. No matter which way you slice it, the S&P 500 is expensive.

5. Corporate profits vs. GDP. And finally, “it makes sense that the S&P 500 trades for higher valuations now than most of the last +60 years, since 1) corporate profits are a much greater ratio of GDP than ever before, and 2) that disparity is at least partly due to a set of companies with global competitive advantage."

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