DC Lite #243

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1. Economic surprise. US data is surprising to the upside.

2. Economic surprise vs. Treasury yields. "U.S. economic momentum is likely to stay relatively healthy until this coming January."

3. Retail investor sentiment. A rise in bullish AAII sentiment was accompanied by a sharp drop in neutral responses (suggesting high conviction) which fell to the lowest since Oct'22 (coincides with bear market lows).

4. Red wave. "Since 1900 the 2-year equity return of the S&P 500 following a sweep has been positive 15 out of 19 elections. For just the Republicans, it has been 7 out of 8."

5. EPS: NTM vs. TTM vs. GAAP. These gaps raise concerns about the sustainability of the S&P 500's earnings.

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