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1. Architecture Billings Index. The ABI—a leading indicator of construction activity—turned positive (barely) in October for the first time in nearly 2 years.
2. DOGE vs. government spending. "As for the Department of Government Efficiency, good luck with that. Entitlements are an increasingly large share of total government spending, and previous budget agreements will already cut non-defense discretionary spending to the lowest share of GDP on record."
3. Investor Intelligence. The II Bull/Bear Ratio increased to 3.28 from 2.91. Meanwhile, correction expectations are hovering near multi-year lows.
4. Mutual funds vs. Magnificent 7. "Mutual funds are drastically underweight the Mag 7."
5. Earnings recovery. "While it’s been predominantly a cost cutting and efficiency gains story to date, more companies are participating in the earnings recovery (~60% of S&P 500 companies have positive EPS growth today versus ~50% in 1Q 2023). We expect this broadening in earnings growth to continue."
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