DC Lite #252

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As a reminder: DC is off Thursday-Friday and back Monday, December 2.

1. Personal income vs. spending. Personal income rose by 0.6% MoM in October (vs. 0.3% est), the largest gain since March. Spending increased by 0.4% (vs. 0.3% est), down from an upwardly revised 0.6% in September.

2. PCE. "Headline PCE inflation accelerated to 0.20% m/m from 0.175% in September, while core PCE inflation accelerated even more to 0.30% from 0.25%. However, the entire acceleration was driven by a 3.5% m/m (sa) jump in portfolio management fees, which contributed 5.2bps to headline and 5.8bps to core inflation in October."

3. Investor Intelligence. "Optimism continues to expand as the II Bull-Bear Spread moves into the 40's. In bull markets, optimism can appear elevated for extended periods of time. Risks to the downside increase when optimism fades and bulls turn bearish."

4. Foreign capital flows. "Foreign capital invested in U.S. securities is greater than the sum of foreign capital invested in the next 12 economies combined."

5. Bellwethers. "All 8-bellwether market indicators have achieved new all-time highs in November. Historically, when this occurs, the median duration until S&P 500 peak has been 7.5 months. Median return = +5.6%."

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