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- DC Lite #253
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1. Q4 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q4 GDP growth jumped to 3.2% from 2.7% on Nov 27.
2. USD strength. "There's nothing inevitable about how the Dollar has traded since the election compared with 2016. But the parallels are uncanny. If 2016 is any guide, we're about to enter another round of Dollar strength that will take the Dollar up to around 6% by the end of 2024."
3. Sentiment divergence. While newsletter writer sentiment remains bullish, retail investors have turned bearish.
4. Funding spreads. "Funding spreads resumed their climb over the past week following mid-November volatility. This suggests there has been no reduction in appetite for equity upside from professional investors in the futures, swaps and options markets and is a bullish sign for future near-term equity performance."
5. Strategist forecast. "Wall Street strategists spent 2024 with targets well below the S&P 500. Next year, though, strategists are poised to lift their 2025 targets by 20% (vs 2024 marks) and 11% above the spot S&P 500 (~6,700). This is the largest surge in strategist optimism on record."
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