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1. Implied hiring rate. "Not understanding why I keep hearing 'solid' as the adjective for today’s jobs report. Implied hiring rate plunged in the last two jobs reports."
2. Inflation expectations. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 2.6% to 2.9% in November, the highest in 5 months. Expectations varied predictably by party affiliation.
3. Bull markets. "This current bull market is nearly 26 months old and is officially up more than 70%. Note that going back 50 years, the bull markets that made it this far lasted many more years in every single case."
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4. Quarterly EPS revisions. "During the months of October and November, analysts lowered EPS estimates [for Q4] by a smaller margin compared to three of the four most recent averages."
5. Analysts' overestimation. Even after applying the average analysts' overestimation (6.3%) to current 2025 bottom-up EPS estimates ($275.24), the index would still post its highest annual EPS number ever ($257.82).
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