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DC Lite #260
5 of Wednesday's best charts and insights
Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.
1. Real incomes vs. FFR. "Households’ real personal income, even after netting out interest payments (including mortgage interest), is positive and rising. It is very unusual for Fed to be cutting rates when real income is improving."
2. CPI. "The Waller Rule - which looks at how many CPI basket components are running >2.5% annualised inflation - shot up in Nov. The breadth of inflation was high esp for a Nov. Worryingly, 6M trend ticking up into a seasonally hot period for inflation (Q1)."
3. Consumers vs. stocks. "US consumers have never felt so optimistic about gains in the stock market over the next 12 months, eclipsing anything we saw around 2000."
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4. Investment Manager Index. "Risk appetite highest since April 2021 as investors see US equities gaining value through 2025 ... Bullishness is led by financials and tech, while defensives, energy, and real estate suffer from investor disfavor."
5. Valuation vs. earnings. “Typically, the P/E-expansion happens in the first year of a new bull market, at which point the baton gets passed to earnings. We are now in year 3 of the cycle and earnings are indeed doing the lifting, but so are valuations. This is somewhat unusual.”
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