DC Lite #261

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1. Jobless claims. "I would the downplay the spike in initial unemployment claims this morning. The seasonal adjustments are very tricky at this time of the year. The continuing claims data looks more concerning, however."

2. PCE forecasts. "After the November PPI, forecasters have lowered their projections for core PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred gauge). They now see core PCE rising 0.13% in November, which annualizes to 1.6%. This would hold the 12-month rate at 2.8%."

3. Back-to-back 20%. Years following back-to-back annual returns of 20% or more are typically characterized by a strong H1 and a weaker H2, per Fundstrat.

4. Today vs. 2000. "Stark difference between 2000 bubble and today's 8 bellwethers validating of bull."

5. Profit margins outlook. “We see upside for margins in [2025] as companies benefit from lower costs (as inflation cools), take advantage of efficiency gains, and exert pricing power.”