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- DC Lite #265
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1. US vs. RoW. "Measured across goods and services, US output grew faster than the G4 average in December to the greatest extent since June 2021."
2. Neutral rate. “The median Fed official's long run dot (i.e. the neutral rate) moved up again, breaching 3% for the first time since the Sep 2018 Fed meeting.”
3. Yields reaction. "2-year yield and fed funds rate have converged. Bond market is telling the Fed to stop cutting rates. Maybe that is why stocks are so upset today."
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4. VIX. "Every time the VIX jumped by 50% in a single session, it plunged over the next month. Every. Single. Time. Is this going to be different? Seems like it could be, but we all know the danger of 'this time is different.'"
5. SPX breadth. The % above S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages fell to 18.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The last time these gauges fell below similar levels was amidst a 3-month ~10% pullback in 2023.
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