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- DC Lite #268
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1. Labor market differential. There was a "big jump in labor market differential in December."
2. Financial conditions. "Financial conditions in the US are showing signs of tightening, contributing to a less favorable environment for economic growth."
3. Yields vs. stocks. "Two-year Treasury rates, the part of the yield curve most sensitive to the market’s view of future Fed policy, have remained high and stable for 2 years. The S&P is up +50% over that period. ‘Higher for longer’ is no threat to further US equity gains."
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4. CTAs vs. US equities. Goldman has CTAs modeled as sellers of US stocks in all scenarios over the next week and 2/3 scenarios over the next month.
5. Breadth dashboard. "At an index level, the trend is good... but under the hood it's a blood bath."
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