DC Lite #269

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1. Home price growth. "U.S. home prices grew 0.5% from a month earlier in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the third consecutive month with a 0.5% increase. On a year-over-year basis, home prices rose 5.7%, the lowest annual increase since October 2023."

2. Market vs. SEP. "Ahead of the Sept FOMC the entire bond market was at Jeremy Seigel's place on Recession island ... Today the entire bond market is at H4L island while the FOMC doves are just waking up on the puke covered floor at Jeremy's place."

3. TLT flows. "A reasonable interpretation is that bond investors agreed with the Fed's policy from March 2022 to November 2024, even if it was hiking, as it was fighting inflation. However, since the Fed cut again in November, bond investors have reversed and fled the bond market. Almost $10 billion has left TLT."

4. Forward profit margins. The forward profit margin for the 'MegaCap-8' is 25.3% vs. 11.9% for the rest of the index.

5. ERP. “The spread [of the S&P 500 earnings yield] to the 30yr inflation protected bond has now hit the lowest on record... you are receiving 1.25% premium to own US equities over 30yr TIPS. One is guaranteed. The other is The Greatest Story Ever Sold…”