DC Lite #273

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1. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims fell by 9k to 211k (vs. 222k est), the lowest in 8 months. Continuing claims dropped by 52k to 1,844k (vs. 1,890k est), the lowest since September.

2. Megacap call volume. "Speculative 'mega cap tech' call buying has decreased significantly: down 75% from peak."

3. Active managers vs. US equities. Over the past 3 weeks, the NAAIM Exposure Index has dropped from a peak of 99.2 to a 4-month low of 64.1, which is below the long-term average of 66.1

4. China outperformance. "For all the talk of China being 'uninvestible', in 2024 it ended up delivering the best equity and bond returns in US dollar terms."

5. Seasonality. "US stocks have demonstrated a tendency to perform strongly during the first half of January."