DC Lite #275

5 of Monday's best charts and insights

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1. Crypto asset flows. Digital asset funds saw a record $44.2bn of inflows globally in 2024, nearly 4x the previous record set in 2021. Flows were dominated by Bitcoin (+$38bn).

2. USD seasonality. January is typically the strongest month of the year for the US dollar.

3. SPX vs. TLT. "SPX has nearly exhausted the amount of time it's been able to rally against falling TLT. A new SPX up-leg seems unlikely without the support of bond prices."

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4. HF trading flow. "Now is the time when Hedge Funds typically re-lever long. This has happened in 13 out of the last 14 January’s. We are starting from a net short base here in 2025, as HF exposure leans short out of the gate and underexposed to this rally."

5. Valuations vs. expectations. And finally, “for almost all of Wall Street to expect a double-figure year when the market leaders are priced like this is quite something … the degree of agreement is extraordinary. Nobody expects a decline.”

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