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- DC Lite #279
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1. Hike probability. Market-implied odds of a rate hike over the next year have risen sharply since the election.
2. Job expectations. "Consumer expectations of quitting, being laid off, or finding a job after a layoff all fell meaningfully. Lower churn suggests lower wage growth (and better productivity)."
3. HFs vs. Energy stocks. "Surprisingly, despite the surge in crude oil ... [last] week’s notional long selling in US Energy was the largest in more than eight years."
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4. HFs vs. USD. Bullish dollar positioning is at its highest since January 2019.
5. Global sales exposure. "41% of revenues in the S&P 500 come from abroad. If we have a recession in Europe and a continued slowdown in China, it will have a significant negative impact on earnings for S&P 500 companies."
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