DC Lite #280

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1. NFIB. "US small-business optimism extended its surge in December to the highest level since October 2018 ... Seven of the 10 index components improved, led by a 16-point jump in the net share of businesses expecting better business conditions."

2. NFIB vs. SPX. Current NFIB readings suggest average to below-average forward returns for the S&P 500.

3. USD vs. gold. "The Dollar's Daily Sentiment Index (50 day average) surged to the top 3% of all historic readings! Previous cases led to topping patterns for the Dollar. More importantly, gold gained an average of +24% over the next year as the Dollar topped."

4. R2K vs. 200DMA. "The Russell 2000 traded below its 200-day moving average (DMA) on an intraday basis Monday, ending what was the index's sixth streak of a year or more without trading below that level. Following the end of each of the five prior streaks, the Russell 2000 was higher a year later with a median gain of 13.45%."

5. USD vs. EPS. “Index-level EPS growth exhibits a weak statistical relationship relative to the dollar's rate of change.”