DC Lite #282

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1. Overvalued homes. "Housing could be overvalued by anywhere from 10% to 35% based on how investors are acting."

2. MMF assets. "Global money market fund assets hit a new all-time high of $9.7 tn, highlighting the perceived security and attractiveness of these funds as a viable approach for temporarily storing and increasing capital."

3. AAII sentiment. Bulls dropped to 25.43% (lowest since Nov'23), ~1 standard deviation below the long-term mean. Bears rose to 40.57% (highest since Nov'23), ~1 standard deviation above the long-term mean.

4. AAII sentiment vs. SPX. Similar AAII levels (% bulls below 26, % bears above 40) have usually marked buying opportunities for stocks. Following 32 previous signals, the S&P 500 was higher 1 year later 94% of the time for a median gain of 14.2%.

5. Sector EPS growth. "Wall Street expects the perfect year from S&P 500 companies in 2025. All 11 sectors are expected to report growing profits, which would be the first time that's happened since 2018."