DC Lite #283

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.

Administrative update: As a reminder, DC will be off Monday, January 20th.

1. Swaps vs. FFR. "Markets tend to be extremely impatient when it comes to predicting change ... The short-termedness of markets means we are over-eager to price in turning points."

2. Energy prices vs. Fed. Energy prices typically rise after the Fed begins cutting rates.

3. Sentiment Indicator. Goldman's equity positioning indicator has plunged in January from 'stretched' territory to neutral.

4. EPS growth: Mag 7 vs. Other 493. Analysts expect the gap in YoY EPS growth between the Mag 7 and the Other 493 to widen through Q3 2025 before narrowing in Q4.

5. SPX vs. GDP. “The S&P500 market capitalization to global GDP ratio has eclipsed the previous highs made in 2021, and is well above the 1998-2000 dotcom boom/bust too (granted many US firms source significant revenues from the rest of the world now more so than ever).”