DC Lite #284

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1. Gold ETF flows. "Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of US$1.6bn (~19 tonnes) last week, the largest weekly net inflows since October."

2. USD specs. "Derivative traders held the equivalent of roughly $34.6 billion in total bets that stand to benefit from further gains in the dollar as of Jan. 14, a nearly $1 billion increase from the week prior ... That’s the most since 2019."

3. Stocks vs. yields. "Yields have now fallen from the area that has tended to pressure stocks. Since 2022, it has not been a specific yld level that has hurt stocks. Rather, when yields move to the 80th %tile of their rolling 1Q range (currently 4.66%), the S&P500 struggles."

4. CTAs vs. global equities. "We have CTAs modeled long +$70bn of global equities (43rd %tile) after buying +$13bn of equities last week globally. We have this cohort as small buyers of equities globally in every scenario over the next week."

5. Valuation vs. presidency. "American stocks are 83% more expensive than when Bill Clinton first took the oath of office, 145% more than when Barack Obama first did and a whopping four times Ronald Reagan’s starting point."