DC Lite #287

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1. Inflation expectations. "Inflation expectations show considerable divergence depending on your views about tariffs. People who think higher tariffs are good expect little inflation. People who think lower tariffs are good expect more inflation."

2. Expected vs. realized GDP. "The hurdle for upside economic surprises - which have fueled the rally over the past two years - is now materially higher."

3. Corporate insiders. The insider "buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988."

4. Short interest. "The overall level of short interest on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices has been steadily falling in recent years … Drilling down to the individual stock level yields roughly the same results."

5. Q4 profit margins. And finally, seven sectors are reporting YoY increases in margins while five are reporting margins above their 5-year averages.