DC Lite #294

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1. JOLTS. The labor market continues to cool gradually. The job openings rate fell to 4.5% from 4.9% while the quits, hiring, and layoffs & discharge rates were all unchanged, consistent with a slow-to-hire, slow-to-fire environment.

2. US vs. the world. "Who's vulnerable to U.S. tariffs? Everyone. Bloomberg [Economics] finds that the largest economies (like the EU and China) are 2 and 5 times more dependent (respectively) on exports to the US than vice-versa. Vietnam tops the list and is 758 times more dependent."

3. Mag 7 capex. "We are in the AI buildout, with total capital investment by the 'magnificent seven' mostly mega cap tech stocks on par with government R&D."

4. High capex vs. SPX. "Beyond the Magnificent 7, growing capital expenditures have not been a recipe for success in the markets. Typically, companies with higher spending on property, plants and equipment have generally been out of favor on Wall Street, compared to the broader stock market."

5. US exceptionalism. The S&P 500 outpaces its peers in terms of its growth investment ratio. The US has also generated superior returns on those investments.