DC Lite #3

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1. Food prices. "Despite worries about the impact of El Niño and the Russia-Ukraine war, global food prices continue to drop. The monthly FAO food price index, released earlier today, is at a 2½-year low."

2. NFP (II). "96,000 people reported being out of work due to a strike or labor dispute in October. That's the most since 1997."

3. Sahm Rule. The Sahm Rule, which has no false positives, "posits the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by a half-percentage point or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months." Current reading: 0.33.

4. SPY vs. TLT (II). Long-term bonds are more volatile than stocks.

5. EM fund flows. EM debt and equity funds saw the largest outflow since June. Meanwhile, EM stocks are at 52-year lows relative to US stocks.

Have a great weekend!