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DC Lite #301
"Those PPI numbers were a game-changer for the January core PCE print"
Daily Chartbook
February 13, 2025
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1. Home delistings. "Nearly 73,000 homes were pulled from sale in December 2024, a 64% increase compared with the same month in 2023, indicating a lack of buyers in the housing market."
2. PPI. "Those PPI numbers were a game-changer for the January core PCE print. We're now tracking 0.28% m/m, 2.6% y/y (down from 2.8% in Dec.) All the healthcare and insurance PPI components were weak and airline fares prices fell sharply. About as good as the Fed could have hoped for."
3. Retail investor sentiment. "The last three times they got this Bearish in this Bull Market, Stocks never looked back."
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4. Mutual fund/ETF flows. "Tariff/trade war concerns seem to have spooked mutual fund/ETF investors, who pulled almost as much capital out of US stocks last week [red] as they added in January [green]."
5. 2025 EPS estimates. Earnings estimates are tracking above the typical path.
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