DC Lite #305

1. Active managers vs. US equities. The NAAIM Exposure Index broke out of its recent range to the highest since mid-December.

2. CTAs vs. US equities. CTA risks are skewed to the downside.

3. Buybacks (I). "Companies are talking about buybacks again, after a post-2020 drop in CEOs’ favorite stock-price-boosting trick. Mentions of share repurchases during company earnings calls are up roughly 30% since the second quarter of 2024."

4. Buybacks (II). Goldman expects to see $1.16 trillion worth of buyback executions this year. With 250 trading days in 2025, that works out to $4.64bn per day (~$7bn during open window, ~$3bn during closed window).

5. Higher Jan+Feb. "Should the S&P 500 finish February higher, that would mean stocks gained in both Jan and Feb. Rest of year? Higher 93.1% of the time and up 12.3% on avg. Full year up nearly 20% on avg."