DC Lite #309

1. Global growth leading indicators. "On the growth front, the US economy is much stronger relative to the Euro Area and China than at the onset of the first trade war in 2018 ... This raises the stakes for non-US countries, whose economies would come under further pressure from a protracted trade war."

2. SPY vs. TLT. "The ratio of stocks to bonds (proxied by the popular ETFs SPY and TLT) has moved perfectly in alignment with the futures contracts trying to predict the fed funds rate at the end of this year ... What’s happening now is plainly a dose of nerves about growth."

3. TLT vs. HYGH. "US stocks are suffering from a momentum unwind, not a growth scare."

4. Stock correlations. "Stocks are moving less frequently in lockstep, with one measure of how much stocks move in unison, Cboe’s 3-Month Implied Correlation Index, near a record low."

5. Mag 7 vs. unprofitable tech. Unprofitable tech has been outperforming the Magnificent 7 over the last ~6 months.

ICYMI

• Tue 2/25 #308: "We are running out of new gold"

• Mon 2/24 #307: "Q4 earnings season reflects a character change in the market"

• Fri 2/21 #306: "The US $SPY has been the worst performing of the G7 country ETFs since Trump re-took office"

• Thu 2/20 #305: "Companies are talking about buybacks again"