DC Lite #313

1. US tariff rate. "Highest average tariffs rate since WWII."

2. Retail imbalance. "In the first hour of trading, the so-called retail investors yanked $1.2 billion out of the US equity market — the largest pullback during that time period since JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s data begin a decade ago ... The pullback from single stocks reached $1.1 billion and was broadly distributed across sectors."

3. SPX breadth. The % of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200MA is now at the lowest since November 2023.

4. Corrections. "The S&P 500 is down over 5% from its peak on February 19, the largest pullback since last August. This is now the 30th correction >5% off of a high since the March 2009 low. They all seemed like the end of the world at the time."

5. VIX backwardation. "This signal suggests we could be reaching a short-term low in equities. The VIX 1M contract is above the 3M contract. Not bullet-proof, but has marked short-term lows over the past year."

ICYMI

• Mon 3/3 #312: "The initial post-election stock market rally has largely faded"

• Fri 2/28 #311: "There is a clear bid to the market in the second half of March, and the 14th sticks out to me as the local low"

• Thu 2/27 #310: "Hedge funds have been selling off tech and communication services in size"

• Wed 2/26 #309: "US stocks are suffering from a momentum unwind, not a growth scare"