DC Lite #314

1. Business inflation expectations. "Firms surveyed by the NY Fed expect their costs to rise this year by more than they did at this time last year."

2. Tariffs vs. tax cuts. "All Americans except for the richest 20% will pay more in tariffs than they will get back from Trump's tax cuts."

3. Bitcoin RSI. "This is every single time that Bitcoin's daily RSI has become oversold (RSI < 25) over the past 5 years, since the start of 2020. The signal just flashed 7 days ago. Do whatever you want with this information."

4. Hedge funds vs. global equities. "We have seen unprecedented de-risking from Hedge Funds during this $SPX pullback. Over the last 2 weeks, Hedge Funds have sold global equities at the fastest pace ever recorded."

5. SPY put volume. "SPY put volume spiked yesterday to the 3rd highest in history. Previous 2 spikes were bottoms for the S&P 500."

ICYMI

• Tue 3/4 #313: "This signal suggests we could be reaching a short-term low in equities"

• Mon 3/3 #312: "The initial post-election stock market rally has largely faded"

• Fri 2/28 #311: "There is a clear bid to the market in the second half of March, and the 14th sticks out to me as the local low"

• Thu 2/27 #310: "Hedge funds have been selling off tech and communication services in size"