DC Lite #315

1. Challenger job cuts. Employers announced 172k job cuts in February, the highest total for the month on record and the most for any month since July 2020. Cuts were led by the government (62k), retail (38.9k), and tech (14.5k) sectors. DOGE is responsible for nearly 30% of job cut announcements YTD.

2. Productivity. "Good news in the revised productivity data: the US economy now above the pre-pandemic forecast. And still growing strongly. Plus AI probably barely in these data, yet. (Big revision was to the denominator--fewer hours went into making the GDP we had)."

3. Mag 7 fear. "It is has gotten much more expensive to protect against more downside than it is to chase upside, an indication that hedges are in demand. This premium ... is about 1.8 standard deviations above its one-year average for the Magnificent 7 collective."

4. NDX vs. 200MA. "The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ closed below its 200-day average for the first time in over a year. Watch the next 2 weeks. Every time it lost its 200-day after an extended run and suffered at least a -3.5% drawdown within the next 2 weeks, it led to a bear market. When the 2-week drawdown was less than -3.5%, 1-year returns were positive every time."

5. SPX annual highs by month. And finally, “since 1928, the S&P 500’s annual high has only occurred during February five times – 1931, 1934, 1947, 1966, and 1994.”

ICYMI

• Wed 3/5 #314: "SPY put volume spiked yesterday to the 3rd highest in history"

• Tue 3/4 #313: "This signal suggests we could be reaching a short-term low in equities"

• Mon 3/3 #312: "The initial post-election stock market rally has largely faded"

• Fri 2/28 #311: "There is a clear bid to the market in the second half of March, and the 14th sticks out to me as the local low"