DC Lite #317

In partnership with

1. Global equity positioning (I). "Consolidated equity positioning currently stands at the 38th percentile, which indicates a notable level of increased risk aversion among investors."

2. Global equity positioning (II). Positioning in China is holding up remarkably well relative to the US, EU, and Japan.

3. CTAs vs. US equities. "We have CTAs modeled SHORT -$10bn of US equities after selling -$39bn in the last 5 sessions. There have only been 15 other instances of similar/greater magnitude in our dataset. Outside of three bouts in 2023, they all occurred in 2018 and 2020."

4. US vs. RoW. "As of March 7, this is the worst start to a year for the S&P 500 compared to the MSCI ACWI ex-US Index on record, going back to 1988."

5. EU vs. US. "European stocks’ outperformance has gone a long way, but in the big scheme of things the recent move remains a blip; we think it can continue."

ICYMI

• Fri 3/7 #316: "The history of Trump’s first term suggests a high pain tolerance for equity market weakness"

• Thu 3/6 #315: "The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ closed below its 200-day average for the first time in over a year. Watch the next 2 weeks"

• Wed 3/5 #314: "SPY put volume spiked yesterday to the 3rd highest in history"

• Tue 3/4 #313: "This signal suggests we could be reaching a short-term low in equities"

• Mon 3/3 #312: "The initial post-election stock market rally has largely faded"