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DC Lite #318
"The street is as bearish crude oil as it was in March 2020 when planet earth effectively locked down"
Daily Chartbook
March 11, 2025
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1. NFIB. "Expansion plans for the last month just plunged by the largest amount since April 2020, which was right in the teeth of the onset of Covid."
2. Oil sentiment. "The street is as bearish crude oil as it was in March 2020 when planet earth effectively locked down."
3. Hedge fund de-grossing. "Combining Friday and Monday, the de-grossing activity was the largest 2-day de-grossing in 4 years."
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4. Drawdowns. Besides Staples, all other large-cap sector ETFs are at least 5% below their 52-week highs. SPY is just shy of ‘correction’ territory.
5. SPX pullbacks. "The average year since 1980 has averaged a 14% peak-to-trough correction on average ... we haven’t had a 10% correction since late in 2023 and the odds we would go all of 2025 without one were likely slim."
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