DC Lite #322

1. Homebuilder sentiment. "Housing is not working with rates stick between 6.5-7.0%. The NAHB Housing Market Index declined for the 2nd consecutive month to 39 in March, the lowest since August. The drop in the NAHB data suggest a decline in private residential fixed investment in the coming quarter."

2. Equity Sentiment Indicator. Goldman's US equities positioning indicator is at its lowest since early 2023. A few months ago it was at record highs.

3. Nasdaq flows. "TQQQ traders tend to be contrarian: they buy when stocks crash (inflows) and sell when markets rally (outflows). And right now, these contrarian traders are buying hand-over-fist in anticipation of a rally."

4. 90% upside volume day. "The S&P 500 just recorded its 2nd straight day with 90% advancing stocks after hitting a 6-month low."

5. Annual EPS estimates. “So far, industry analysts haven't gotten either the tariff memo or the recession memo. S&P 500 forward earnings per share rose to a record $278.59 during the March 13 week.”

ICYMI

• Fri 3/14 #321: "The big news in the UMich data was not inflation expectations"

• Thu 3/13 #320: "Investors say they are pessimistic but are still invested aggressively"

• Wed 3/12 #319: "History shows that S&P 500 drawdowns are usually good buying opportunities"

• Tue 3/11 #318: "The street is as bearish crude oil as it was in March 2020 when planet earth effectively locked down"

• Mon 3/10 #317: "European stocks’ outperformance has gone a long way, but in the big scheme of things the recent move remains a blip"