DC Lite #325

1. Monthly housing payments. "The typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment is $2,793, just a few dollars shy of the all-time high."

2. USD vs. capital flows. "A stronger dollar, often a symptom of risk aversion, has historically attracted capital inflows, but persistent trade frictions could lead to capital flight if investors begin to question the long-term implications for US economic stability."

3. SPX vs. drawdowns. "The US stock market is nearing a crossroads ... At the moment, the hard data gives few signs of an imminent recession. But the market is fragile. If it sells off further it risks triggering a recession-inducing feedback loop – stocks would then sell off much further."

4. QQQ vs. KWEB. "Chinese Tech stocks (using $KWEB as our proxy) recently beat the Nasdaq 100 by 2 standard deviations over the prior year. When $QQQ has been this oversold in the past, it went on to outperform by strong-double digits and with a 100% win rate over the next year."

5. Buy ratings. And finally, at 55.7%, the percentage of 'Buy' ratings for S&P 500 stocks is on track to end the month at its highest since August 2022.

ICYMI

• Wed 3/19 #324: "Can stocks fall 10% this year? Maybe, but history would say something bad needs to happen"

• Tue 3/18 #323: "The Magnificent 7 are finally acting as a group — besides Apple, they’re all tumbling together"

• Mon 3/17 #322: "So far, industry analysts haven't gotten either the tariff memo or the recession memo"

• Fri 3/14 #321: "The big news in the UMich data was not inflation expectations"