DC Lite #329

1. Q1 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1 GDP growth was unchanged at -1.8%. However, its new alternative model’s forecast, which adjusts for imports/exports of gold, is at 0.2%.

2. Bitcoin whales. "The 30D position change for whales shows they’ve added +129K BTC since March 11 - with momentum picking up sharply over the past 2 days. That’s the largest accumulation rate since late August 2024, signaling growing confidence from large players."

3. Treasury options. "Traders are piling into 5Y Treasuries as tariff risks cloud the Fed’s rate path — options demand surging, with bets on yields dropping to 3.55% by late April. The 'belly' of the curve is becoming Wall Street’s safe haven."

4. Stocks vs. dollar regimes. "If we look at the trade weighted Dollar Index going back to the 1970s I would highlight 6 major regime changes with the potential that a 7th major regime change is just starting now ... in each period of Dollar weakness foreign stocks outperform, oftentimes by a significant margin."

5. Valuation vs. earnings. "P/E-expansion does the heavy lifting in the early stages of a bull market, and some P/E compression is consistent with a later stage bull market. The good news is that valuations are coming down faster than price."

ICYMI

• Tue 3/25 #328: "High-yield credit spreads are now back below their 2024 average"

• Mon 3/24 #327: "Futures Traders have accumulated a rare Long VIX position"

• Fri 2/21 #326: Goldman has CTAs modeled as buyers of US equities in all scenarios over the next week and month

• Thu 2/20 #325: The percentage of 'Buy' ratings for S&P 500 stocks is on track to end the month at its highest since August 2022