DC Lite #331

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1. Monthly mortgage payments. "The typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,807 during the four weeks ending March 23, up 5.3% from a year earlier."

2. Consumer sentiment. "A record 51% of UMich survey respondents are now making unsolicited negative comments about government economic policy."

3. Hedge fund leverage. "Seeing plenty of short-exposure....more than COVID."

4. Semis sales. "The recent decline in semiconductor stocks points to a coming slowdown in semiconductor sales."

5. Corrections vs. uncertainty. "There have been 53 +10% corrections in the S&P 500 (since 1950). Historically, ~60% go onto decline by 15% (serious correction). Notably, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index continues rising in those cases. We doubt policy uncertainty declines post 4/2."

ICYMI

• Thu 3/27 #330: There have only been 2 other instances where the % of AAII bears stayed above 50% for at least 5 consecutive weeks

• Wed 3/26 #329: "Traders are piling into 5Y Treasuries as tariff risks cloud the Fed’s rate path"

• Tue 3/25 #328: "High-yield credit spreads are now back below their 2024 average"

• Mon 3/24 #327: "Futures Traders have accumulated a rare Long VIX position"