DC Lite #333

1. JOLTS. The job openings rate declined in February to 4.5% from 4.7%. hires, quits, and layoffs & discharges were little changed.

2. Retail vs. gold. "Central banks want hard, physical assets in a world that is becoming increasingly uncertain and unstable ... Retail may now be getting the message, with inflows to the gold ETFs picking up notably in recent weeks."

3. SPX streak. "Historically, when the SPX breaks a quarterly streak of exactly 5 up quarters, forward returns are negatively skewed."

4. SPX vs. April (I). "In years following large bull market gains, the S&P 500 often suffers through an air pocket during tax season. We saw this in 2022 (-12%) and 2024 (-5%). Beware of those expecting positive April seasonality."

5. SPX vs. April (II). "Historically, April tends to be one of the best months of the year when the S&P 500 starts below its 200-day moving average, averaging a gain of more than 2% since the 1950."

ICYMI

• Mon 3/31 #332: The trend is your friend, until it ends. The U.S. stock market is no longer in an Up-trend

• Fri 3/28 #331: "A record 51% of UMich survey respondents are now making unsolicited negative comments about government economic policy"

• Thu 3/27 #330: There have only been 2 other instances where the % of AAII bears stayed above 50% for at least 5 consecutive weeks

• Wed 3/26 #329: "Traders are piling into 5Y Treasuries as tariff risks cloud the Fed’s rate path"