DC Lite #334

In partnership with

1. ADP employment. The private sector added 155k jobs in March (vs. 105k est) following an upwardly revised 84k the previous month (77k prev).

2. Bond positioning. "Sentiment remains mid-range while positioning is still net SHORT – which suggests there’s still plenty of fuel for a short covering rally."

3. Liberation Day. Here is the full list of reciprocal tariffs. Noticeably absent: Canada, Mexico, Russia.

4. Risk allocation vs. tariffs. "Stocks surged in the weeks after Trump’s election victory, with investors and sell-side analysts cheering his plans to slash taxes and regulations, while largely dismissing tariff threats as a negotiating tactic. Now, the mood has changed."

5. Q1 flows. Despite the market's slowdown, investors poured nearly $3bn into equity ETFs every day in Q1.

ICYMI

• Tue 4/1 #333: "Historically, when the SPX breaks a quarterly streak of exactly 5 up quarters, forward returns are negatively skewed"

• Mon 3/31 #332: The trend is your friend, until it ends. The U.S. stock market is no longer in an Up-trend

• Fri 3/28 #331: "A record 51% of UMich survey respondents are now making unsolicited negative comments about government economic policy"

• Thu 3/27 #330: There have only been 2 other instances where the % of AAII bears stayed above 50% for at least 5 consecutive weeks