DC Lite #338

1. Redbook. Same-store retail sales rose 7.2% YoY in the week ending Apr 5, the largest increase YTD.

2. CNH. "Offshore Yuan (CNH) hits record low amid escalating trade war concerns."

3. Gold ETF flows. "Global gold ETFs saw US$8.6bn (92t) of net inflows in March, pushing Q1 total net inflows to US$21bn (226t)—the second strongest quarter on record."

4. SPX vs. VIX. "Bottoms are choppy, and often see a re-test of the lows. S&P 500 after VIX closes above 45 for 3 days in a row (like today)."

5. Breadth signal. "A market bottom signal based on extremes in breadth has activated. No signal is foolproof, but as we can see from the chart below it has often gone off right around market bottoms. However, it has also been early, such as around the 2002 and 2008/09 bottoms."

ICYMI

• Mon 4/7 #337: "'No recession' bears are rare, with only three recorded in the past century (the last being in 2022)."

• Fri 4/4 #336: "A spike above 45 in the $VIX has generally been a pretty good panic-clearing signal"

• Thu 4/3 #335: Today’s 4.8% decline was the worst since June 2020

• Wed 4/2 #334: Here is the full list of reciprocal tariffs. Noticeably absent: Canada, Mexico, Russia