DC Lite #342

1. Inflation expectations. "The NY Fed survey shows one-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in March from 3.1% in February. Three-year ahead inflation expectations held steady at 3%. Five-year ahead inflation expectations ticked down to 2.9% from 3%."

2. Gold ETF flows. "Global gold ETFs saw an incredible US$4.7bn (~52 tonnes) of net inflows last week. North American and Asian funds accounted for the bulk; the latter seeing its largest weekly inflow on record. YTD net inflows now over US$27bn (~293 tonnes)."

3. CTAs vs. US equities. Goldman has CTAs modeled as buyers of US stocks in all scenarios over the next week and month.

4. Strategists vs. SPX. "Wall Street’s leading prognosticators have been humbled this year ... But despite all the convulsions and uncertainty, most equities strategists still expect the S&P 500 Index to rally through the remainder of 2025 … That said, there’s little unity among the predictions."

5. Earnings revisions. "S&P 500 earnings revisions are the worst they’ve been since Covid ... This chart tracks the share of S&P 500 companies with earnings estimates higher than four weeks ago less the number with lower earnings forecasts, divided by the total number of changes."

ICYMI

• Fri 4/11 #341: "History strongly suggests both the Nasdaq 100 and US large cap Tech sector should rally over the next 50 trading days, and by double digits."

• Thu 4/10 #340: "This earnings season isn’t about corporate results. It’s about tariffs"

• Wed 4/9 #339: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped by the most since 2008 and 2001, respectively

• Tue 4/8 #338: "A market bottom signal based on extremes in breadth has activated"

• Mon 4/7 #337: "'No recession' bears are rare, with only three recorded in the past century (the last being in 2022)."