DC Lite #343

1. NY manufacturing. "Dismal expectations for the economy in the NY Fed's survey of regional manufacturers. Basically every line -- new orders, employment etc. -- is going down, with the exception of prices (received, and paid) which are going up."

2. Wall Street vs. Main Street. "The dollar and yields - not stocks - will hold the whip hand with indicating when further softening with US tariff policy is likely ... The stock market is significantly underowned by the bottom 90% of households by wealth - the cohorts who had the biggest majorities for Trump at the last election."

3. Offense vs. Defense. "The Spread remains negative despite the rise in the S&P 500 as we saw a larger uptick in Defensive sentiment during the bounce period."

4. SPX vs. Bollinger Bands. "Last week, 73% of stocks fell below their lower Bollinger Band — an extreme selloff. Now? That number is back to 0%. Here's every time this happened."

5. Small-cap valuations. "Even when compared with equal-weighted large-cap indexes, which reduce the outsized influence of mega-cap companies, the valuation discount of small-cap stocks remains substantially wider than normal."

ICYMI

• Mon 4/14 #342: Goldman has CTAs modeled as buyers of US stocks in all scenarios over the next week and month

• Fri 4/11 #341: "History strongly suggests both the Nasdaq 100 and US large cap Tech sector should rally over the next 50 trading days, and by double digits."

• Thu 4/10 #340: "This earnings season isn’t about corporate results. It’s about tariffs"

• Wed 4/9 #339: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped by the most since 2008 and 2001, respectively